There has been some fairly brutal bullish trading over the past day or so and price has settled around a baseline of $230 after the dust has cleared. The price range was fairly robust between $220 and $240 and there was a lot of volume traffic since the last localized low; I mentioned last week that some whale-sized traders or institutions may be responsible for some of these price fluctuations. That said, these price levels are important market signifiers and could potentially tell us if the lower support line of $210 has broken down and if there is an upwards movement as the bulls pull more and more trades into their environment. I would not want to get too far ahead of the market since there is still a fair amount of uncertainty and I remain carefully neutral for any trading recommendations at this point until the current range model has changed substantially. Let’s take a look at the 1 hour technical to start:
https://cryptowat.ch/coinbase/btcusd/1hr
For today’s technical I want to focus on the one hour mark since there is a good amount of detail for any short-term trading that anyone might want to do. There was some heavy resistance in the early part of the week that built up to the $245 level before market momentum pushed over with enough inertia into an overbought threshold and that is where the price began to breakdown. Any of the previous indicators were wiped out with the buy saturation orders and I find it curious that market price found some solid support on top of on target earnings within the long zone which have held at approximately 62% Fibonacci; incidentally this is at the very bottom of the volume order profile.
If another Fibonacci retracement around 78% can hold at $231 then there might be another near-term bottom with a rally back to $242 but I would not recommend a buy at this point, there just is not enough strength in the upper and lower supper bands. There could be a countertrend rally in the next day or so but equally price could head into sideways territory for the weekend, as it has for the last few weekends without much happening; I do not think that anyone would be surprised since we have unfortunately had some fairly unexciting weekends but I guess that is sometimes just the way of things.
I hold strongly to the “wait and watch” strategy right now, which is another way of saying that I cannot make any trade recommendations until there are some better signals on the dailies. There has been some near-term noise across the technicals and I think every trader right now could stand to be more careful and methodical about whatever trade system or strategy that might currently be brewing. Today’s word is pork-barrel politics:
“A slang term used when politicians or governments “unofficially” undertake projects that benefit a group of citizens in return for that group’s support or campaign donations. This spending mostly benefits the needs of a small select group despite the fact that the entire community’s funds are being used. Also referred to as patronage.”
I think everyone has heard this phrase of “pork-barrel,” where an official entity may undertake and support a project that benefits a few in exchange for donations or other kickbacks. When this happens, and it most certainly has and will continue to occur, it is often for the benefit of a few regardless that many parties may be impacted by the funds at large. Indeed, this can impact bitcoin markets and otherwise as well since legislation, regulation, and even venture capital funding all have small but measurably cumulative consequences on market prices and therefore the worth of all our coins. Happy trading!
